Tourism Sales Climate Index – January 2019

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Tourism Sales Climate Index – January 2019

31.01.2019

The year 2018 showed an overall very positive balance in the tourism sales climate index but sales started with a subdued mood in 2019. Nevertheless, a slightly increasing proportion of travel agencies regard the current booking situation as good and are also optimistic with regard to the future earnings situation.

Current situation

Also in the new year, the majority of participating travel agencies (48.3%) state that the current situation in the distribution of travel services is satisfactory. With 39% (previous month: 38.4%), a slightly rising share even rates the current situation as good. On the other hand, the number of travel agencies that assess the situation as bad in January 2019 has also risen by 0.9%.

With regard to the sale of travel services in the last 2-3 months, only 25.0% of the total, instead of 31.3% in the previous month, indicate that this has increased compared to the previous year. Instead, 31.7% (previous month 30.4%) of travel agencies see a downward trend compared to the year before. This clearly reflects the declining booking curve in November and December as well as the strong start last year.

Future situation

Travel agencies are rather sceptical about the issue of future demand compared with the previous year. Although 59.7% of travel agencies still state that the demand for travel services will not change in the coming 6 months in comparison to the previous year, the number of travel agencies is still very low. However, 17.6%, or 4.8% more than in the previous month, expect the demand to fall. 22.7% (25% previous month) remain optimistic and expect the demand to rise each year.

Travel agencies, on the other hand, are optimistic about the future earnings situation. For example, 24.2%, which are 3.3% more than in the previous month, expect earnings to improve in the next 6 months. In line with this, the number of travel agencies expecting a worsening earnings situation, are shown by a slight downward trend.

Overall, the first sales climate index in 2019 illustrates the scepticism of travel agencies whether the good figures of 2018 can be continued or not. However, it also shows that the majority of travel agencies are nevertheless optimistic about the future.

In January, 120 travel agencies (112 random samples in the previous month) gave their ratings.

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