The bumpy start in 2019, which was already apparent in the January Tourist Sales Climate Index, is now continuing in February. Travel agencies are assessing the current situation and the future situation more critically than in the previous month – and above all as in the previous year.
Especially regarding the current situation, the mood in travel sales has again deteriorated significantly. One third of the participating travel agencies continue to rate the current situation in the distribution of travel services as good and 44% as satisfactory. On the other hand, at 24.1%, which are 11.4% more than in the previous month rate the current situation as poor.
When questioning the sale of travel services in the last 2-3 months compared to the previous year, almost half of the participants stated that this has decreased. On the other hand, the number of travel agencies that observe unchanged sales has fallen massively. As in the previous month, this reflects the strong previous year as well as the fears of travel agents that they will not be able to surpass or achieve it. For example, the tourism sales climate index reached record levels in February last year.
With regard to the demand for travel services in the coming 6 months, there is some cautious optimism among the participating travel agencies. For example, 24.8% of travel agencies report that demand for travel services has risen from 22.7% to 24.8%. On the other hand, 29.9%, or 12.3% more than in the previous month, expect the demand for travel services to fall.
Similarly, expectations for the earnings situation in the coming 6 months are more gloomy than in the previous month. For the first time in a while, more travel agencies are now expecting the earnings situation to deteriorate in the coming 6 months than not to change or improve.
Overall, the value of the tourism sales climate index has thus fallen to its lowest level for about 2 years. This is in line with current sales evaluations, e.g. by GfK. The ifo World Economic Climate is also currently showing a slightly negative trend. Possible reasons for a restrained booking pleasure in the main booking months include the warm summer of 2018 and increasingly short-term booking behavior of the customers.