The entire industry is hoping for a last-minute year. So far, 2019 has not been able to keep up with the very positive estimates from the previous year, but at least with regard to the current situation, some travel agencies appear to become more optimistic. However, the assessment of the current situation among participants in the tourism sales climate index varies widely.
In June 2019, 30.5% of participating travel agencies rated the current situation in travel service sales as good. In the previous month, this figure was 28%, which represents a slight increase. 38.1% of the travel agencies surveyed in Germany describe the current situation in the sale of travel services as satisfactory (previous month: 50%). However, 31.4% also consider the situation in the distribution of travel services to be bad. Compared to the previous month, this figure has risen by just under 10 percentage points.
The number of travel agencies surveyed that have increased their sales of travel services in the last 2-3 months compared to the previous year rises by a few percentage points from 12.9% in the previous month to 15.3%. 34.7% (previous month 38.8%) rate the sale of travel services in the last 2-3 months as unchanged, and exactly half of the survey participants rate the sale of travel services in the last 2-3 months as lower than in the same month of the previous year.
In comparison to the current situation, the travel agencies surveyed have a cautious assessment of the demand for travel services in the coming 6 months. In May 2019, 20.7% expected a future increase in demand for travel services in the coming 6 months, and this figure remained almost unchanged at 20.5% in June 2019. While in May more than half (56.0%) of the surveyed participants expected the demand for travel services to remain the same in the coming 6 months, this month it is only 43.6%. In June 2019, 35.9% estimate that demand for travel services will decline in the coming 6 months, compared with 23.3% in the previous month.
Minor changes compared with the previous month are reflected in the assessment of the future earnings situation. Exactly 16.1% (previous month also 16.1%) expect an improvement of the earnings situation in the next 6 months. The number of those expecting a deterioration has risen from 33.1% to 40.7%. 43.2% expect the earnings situation to remain the same in the coming 6 months, which means a slight decline (previous month 50.8%).
In summary, it is easy to see that the situation continues to be judged cautiously. Compared to the record year 2018, we are still at a low booking level. However, if we compare the curve with a “normal” booking year, such as 2017, the picture no longer seems so gloomy. And the travel industry can still hope for a last minute year.
In June 2019, 118 travel agencies (118 random samples from the previous month) gave their ratings.