Tourism Sales Climate Index – July 2019

Finally! – This has probably been the thought of more than one travel agent in July. In the travel agencies, cautious optimism is shown with regard to the current booking situation. However, the expectations towards the coming months remain modest. This is the result of Dr. Fried & Partner’s Climate Index for July 2019.

Current Situation

In July 2019, 34.1% of participating travel agencies rated the current situation in travel service sales as good. In the previous month, this figure was 30.5%, which represents an increase this month. 38.0% of queried travel agencies in Germany rated the current situation in the sale of travel services as satisfactory, showing very little change to the result of the previous month (38.1%).  However, only 27.9% rated the current situation in travel service sales as bad. This number decreased compared to last month (June 2019: 31.4%).

A clear rise was observed with travel agencies that could increase their travel service sales in the previous 2-3 months. This number increased by more than 10 percentage points from 15.3% to 26.6%. The sale of travel services in the previous 2-3 months remained unchanged for 27.1% (previous month: 34.7%) and nearly half of the survey’s participants stated that their travel service sales in the previous 2-3 months decreased compared to the previous month.

Future Situation

Nearly 20% of the travel agencies surveyed expect an increase of demand for travel services in the next 6 months. Compared to the previous month this figure remained almost unchanged with a decrease of 1 percentage point. In June 2019, 43.6% of the surveyed participants expected the demand for travel services to remain unchanged in the following 6 months, while this rating increased to 48.8% this month. 31.8% estimate that demand for travel services will decline in the coming 6 months, compared to 35.9% in the previous month.

Minor changes compared to the previous month are reflected in the assessment of the future earnings situation. 17.8% (previous month: 16.1%) expect an improvement of the earnings situation in the next 6 months. The number of those expecting a deterioration has risen from 40.7% to 42.6%.  39.5% expect the earnings situation to remain unchanged in the next 6 months, which means a slight decline (previous month 43.2%).

Summary

A slight upturn can be recognized in the current booking situation, which may result from the price offers of providers striving for business deals with last-minute travelers. Cautious optimism is shown in the assessment of the earnings situations in the next sixth months.

In July 2019, 129 travel agencies (118 random samples from the previous month) gave their ratings.