The tourism sales climate index of Dr. Fried & Partner depicts a negative trend in October. On the one hand, the reason for this can be found in the fact that a slight decline in sentiment was regularly recorded in October over the past few years. On the other hand, it can be assumed that Thomas Cook´s insolvency will have a significant influence on the current mood of the participating travel agencies. The offices are therefore rather sceptical, especially with regard to expectations for the coming months.
The current situation in the distribution of travel services is rated as good by 24.6% of the participating travel agencies. In the previous month, 30.2% of the offices still perceived the situation as good. Half of all respondents rated the current sales situation as satisfactory (previous month 54.3 %) and 25.4 % considered the current sales situation for travel services to be poor (previous month 15.5 %).
19.8 % of those surveyed stated that sales of travel services had risen in the last 2-3 months compared with the previous year (previous month: 24.3 %). 41.3% of the travel agencies surveyed believe that sales of travel services have remained unchanged in the last 2-3 months. 38.8% of travel agencies, however, believe that sales of travel services have fallen in the last 2-3 months. This was 32.2% in the previous month.
With regard to future expectations, only 15.8 % of the participating offices expect demand for travel services to increase in the next 6 months compared with the previous year. In September, 21.7% still assumed an increase in demand. 46.7 % of the participants anticipate a constant demand in the next 6 months. A decline in demand is expected by 37.5 %, which represents a significant increase over the previous month (19.1 %).
13,3 % estimate the earnings situation to improve in the next 6 months. In the previous month it was only 19.0 %. 40.8 % of respondents do not anticipate the earnings situation to change in the next 6 months (previous month 47.4 %). With 45.8 % the number of those predicting a deterioration has increased significantly compared with the previous month (33.6 %).
While there was still a slight upwind in September, skepticism now dominates. The elimination of a big player has a negative impact on the mood. However, it is also a fact that in October there was often a decline in the sentiment. It remains to be seen how the autumn will develop.
In October 2019, 122 travel agencies (116 sample from the previous month) submitted their ratings.