The Tourism Sales Climate Index – November 2019

In contrast to the previous month, Dr. Fried & Partner’s Tourism Sales Climate Index again showed positive trends. The participating travel agencies are confident about both the current and future situation.

Current situation

33.9% of the participating travel agencies assess the current situation in the distribution of travel services as good. This is a noticeable increase compared to the previous month (24.6%). Slightly less than half (47.3%) assess the current situation as satisfactory, whereas only 18.8% consider the current situation to be bad. In the previous month, this figure was still 25.4%.
26.8 % of the respondents state that the sale of travel services has increased in the last 2-3 months compared to the previous year (previous month: 19.8 %). 34.8% of the travel agencies surveyed believe that sales of travel services have remained unchanged in the last 2-3 months. 38.4% of travel agencies, on the other hand, consider that sales of travel services have decreased in the last 2-3 months. At 38.8%, there was hardly any change compared with the previous month.

Future situation

A year-on-year increase in demand for travel services is expected by 24.1% in the next 6 months. In October, only 15.8 % expected an increase in demand. 52.7 % of the participants expect demand to remain constant in the next 6 months. Only 23.2 % expect a decline in demand, which represents a noticeable decrease compared to the previous month (37.5 %).
23.4 % expect the earnings situation to improve in the next 6 months. In the previous month the figure was 13.3 %. 46.8 % of the respondents do not expect the earnings situation to change in the next 6 months (previous month 40.8 %). At 29.7%, the number of those who expect earnings to deteriorate has increased considerably compared with the previous month (45.8%).

Summary

For the tourism industry this year is like a roller coaster. Where negative trends were still evident in October, confidence is now increasing. The insolvency of Thomas Cook is causing uncertainty and discontent for some, while others seem to be benefiting from it. However, the Tourism Sales Climate Index remains at a low level compared to November 2018.
In November 2019, 112 travel agencies (122 sample of the previous month) gave their ratings.