Since 2005, Dr. Fried & Partner has been collecting the monthly tourism sales climate index for you, which serves as an early indicator for the future development of sales of travel services.
After the travel agencies had already started the new year with a positive mood in January, the positive trend continues in the current survey in February. The Tourism Sales Climate Index is significantly higher than in February 2019, but no major year-on-year reversals are expected.
For example, 46.7% of those surveyed rated the current situation in the sale of travel services as good. In the previous month, this figure was still 44.8%. However, the number of those who view the current situation less positively has also risen slightly. For example, 10.3% (previous month 9.5%) of the travel agencies surveyed state that the current situation with regard to the sale of travel services is poor. 43% assess the situation as satisfactory.
Especially in comparison with the previous year, the sale of travel services in the last 2-3 months is seen as positive or unchanged. For example, 34.3% of the travel agencies surveyed reported an increase in sales of travel services compared to the previous year. 44.4% of the survey participants assess sales as unchanged compared to the previous year and 21.3% of them see sales in the last 2-3 months as falling in comparison to the previous year. In January this value was still 29.3%.
In particular, the participants’ assessment of the current situation is therefore largely positive.
With regard to future demand for travel services, the participating travel agencies do not expect any major changes compared with the previous year. 22.2 % of those surveyed expect demand for travel services to increase in the next 6 months. In January, 26.5% of the respondents still shared this assessment. At 62%, however, the majority of those surveyed expect future demand to remain unchanged year-on-year. Only 15.7% of the respondents estimate that demand will decrease compared to the previous year. In the previous month, 20.5% of the participants still expected this.
Regarding the future earnings situation, 24.3% of the respondents anticipate an improvement (25.2% in the previous month). In contrast, more than half of the participants state that the earnings situation will not change in the next 6 months (54.2%). 21.5% expect the earnings situation to deteriorate, although this assessment has declined by 3.3 percentage points versus the previous month.
Although the trend is also positive here, travel agencies are more cautious when looking ahead than when assessing the current situation.
Overall, the participating travel agencies are starting 2020 more positively than in the previous year. The current situation in particular is seen as positive, whereas expectations for the future are optimistic but somewhat more restrained.
In February 2020, 108 travel agencies took part in the survey (previous month 117).