The Tourism Sales Climate Index in April 2020

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The Tourism Sales Climate Index in April 2020

22.04.2020

The current situation in Germany and worldwide influences the sales climate in tourism more than in almost any other industry. In April 2020, the Sales Climate Index falls to its lowest point since its inception. All travel agencies surveyed assess the current situation as bad. Dr. Fried & Partner has been recording the mood at the counter every month since 2005.

Current situation

None of the respondents rated the current situation in the sale of travel services as good. In the previous month, this figure was still 7.9%. At 100.0%, all travel agencies surveyed consider the current situation in the sale of travel services to be bad (previous month 67.7%). None of the respondents rate the current situation as satisfactory. This figure was still 24.4% in March.

The sales of travel services in the last 2-3 months compared to the previous year were already assessed as negative by many in March. In April, it is now apparent that sales of travel services have fallen to 95.0%. In the previous month this was 71.9%. At none of the travel agencies surveyed did sales of travel services increase compared to the previous year (previous month 16.4%). 5.0% of the survey participants rate sales in the last 2-3 months as unchanged compared to the previous year (previous month 11.7%).

The current travel restrictions due to border closures, travel warnings and exit restrictions are currently leading to massive losses in sales, up to total losses in the sale of travel services.

Future situation

Also with regard to the future situation, almost all the travel agencies surveyed are in bad shape. A dwindlingly small percentage (0.8%) of respondents expect demand for travel services to rise in the next 6 months. In March, 7.0% still shared this hope. Likewise, 0.8% of the travel agencies surveyed expect future demand to remain unchanged compared to the previous year. This figure was still 16.4% in March. Nearly all respondents (98.3%) estimate that demand will decline compared to the previous year. In the previous month, 76.6% of participants expected this.

With regard to the future earnings situation, none of the respondents anticipates an improvement (5.5% in the previous month). 0.8% of the participating travel agencies state that the earnings situation will not change in the next 6 months. In March, 11.7% still shared this view. Now almost all respondents (99.2%) assume that the earnings situation will continue to deteriorate in the next 6 months. Compared with the previous month (82.8%), this assessment has increased again.

Travel agencies are thus equally pessimistic about the future situation as they are about the current situation.

Summary

The effects of the corona crisis are clearly felt in tourism. Great uncertainties regarding the future darken the outlook, as it is unclear when border openings and freedom of travel will be possible again.

In April 2020, 120 travel agencies took part in the survey (previous month 128)

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