The Tourism Sales Climate Index in June 2020

Despite further easing of the corona measures throughout Germany and the lifting of travel warnings and border closures for European countries, which have been foreseeable for some time, the mood in travel sales remains clouded. Although the Tourism Sales Climate Index is showing a slight upward trend, it is still at a long-term low that has persisted since March. Dr. Fried & Partner has been recording the mood at the counter on a monthly basis since 2005.

Current situation

Regarding the current situation, none of the respondents rated the sale of travel services as good in June either. On the other hand, 98.3% of travel agencies consider the current sales situation to be bad. In May, 99.2% of travel agencies rated the situation as bad. As many as 1.7% of the travel agencies (0.9% more than in the previous month) assess the current situation in the distribution of travel services as satisfactory.

Compared to the previous year, sales of travel services have continued to slump significantly in the last 2-3 months. Thus 99.2% of the participating travel agencies state that sales have fallen. In the previous month, 98.4% shared this assessment. 0.8% of the survey participants weigh sales at a similar level as in the previous year, while no travel agency states that sales of travel services in the last 2-3 months have increased compared to the previous year.

The gradual easing and (announced) increasing travel freedoms have not yet affected the travel agencies’ assessment of the current situation. Thus, the current situation is sometimes perceived as even more negative than it was a month ago.

Future situation

Very cautious optimism is emerging with regard to future demand. For example, 3.4% of those surveyed expect demand for travel services to rise in the next 6 months. In the previous month, 1.6% expected this. 3.4% of the travel agencies expect demand to remain unchanged compared to the previous year. Nevertheless, the clear majority continues to show scepticism and assumes that demand will decline in the next 6 months. Thus 93.3% chose this response option (previous month 96.9%).

The travel agencies also continue to assess the future earnings situation critically. Only 0.8% of participants expect demand to improve. This figure has not changed compared to the previous month. On the other hand, 2.5% of participants do not expect the earnings situation to change in the next 6 months (previous month: 0.0%). However, almost all respondents (96.6%) continue to expect the earnings situation to deteriorate in the next 6 months. In the previous month, as much as 99.2% indicated this.

With regard to the development of demand, travel agencies show cautious optimism. The future earnings situation, on the other hand, is still perceived with concern.

Summary

Despite easing and cautious signs of optimism, the mood in travel sales is still at an all-time low. In particular, the current situation and future earnings situation continue to be viewed critically by the participating travel agencies.

In June 2020, 119 travel agencies took part in the survey (previous month 127).