New year, new optimism – already towards the end of 2020, the Tourism Sales Climate Index recorded a slight upward trend. This trend is now continuing at the beginning of 2021. After last year caused immense damage, especially in the travel sector, there is hope that 2021 will bring an improvement in the overall situation. Not least the advancing worldwide vaccinations give reason for hope. But what is the mood at the counter in concrete terms? Dr. Fried & Partner has been recording the Tourist Sales Climate Index monthly since 2005.
The current situation at the counter continues to be critical.
Continuing from last year, none of the travel agencies surveyed stated that the current situation in the distribution of travel services was good. Furthermore, 96.7% of the respondents assess the current situation as poor (Dec. 2020: 97.6%) and 3.3% as satisfactory (Dec. 2020: 2.1%).
With regard to the sale of travel services, 0.8% of respondents say that this has increased in the last 2-3 months. In the previous month, 0.7% of respondents indicated this. 4% of the offices estimate that sales have remained unchanged in the last 2-3 months compared to the previous year (previous month: 2.8%). Nevertheless, with 95.1% the clear majority continues to state that sales of travel services have decreased compared to the previous year.
Even in January, actually one of the main booking months, the mood with regard to the current situation remains depressed despite a slight upward trend.
Looking into the future, on the other hand, there is a cautious upward trend.
In January 2021, 80% of the participating travel agencies still expect demand for travel services to fall, but the proportion of those participants who believe that demand will rise compared to the previous year is increasing. After all, 8.3% say that demand for travel services will increase in the next 6 months (previous month: 5.5%). 11.6% expect demand to remain the same as last year (previous month: 6.2%).
With regard to the future earnings situation, cautious optimism is also evident. Thus, 10.7% of the participants expect an improvement in the earnings situation in the next 6 months. In the previous month, only 5.5% of the offices indicated this. However, the vast majority (77.0%) of respondents still expect the future earnings situation to deteriorate (Dec. 2020: 80%). 12.3% of the participants state that the earnings situation will not change in the next 6 months.
For the third time in a row, TVKI has recorded an upward trend in the assessment of future demand and earnings situation in travel distribution.
After January 2020 still started with a clear upward trend both in the assessment of the current situation and the expectations for the future, the incomparable collapse of the Tourism Sales Climate Index followed in March. In 2021, the mood now remains at a very low level for the time being. However, a look into the future allows for optimism at the beginning of 2021 and ensures a slight upward trend of the Tourist Sales Climate Index.
In January, 123 travel agencies took part in the survey (previous month 145).