Scenarios 2025 – An outlook into the future of the travel industry

Scenarios 2025 – An outlook into the future of the travel industry

18.12.2020

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The Corona pandemic has posed major challenges for the tourism industry worldwide. Now the question is: what will happen in the medium run? What does the future of the travel industry look like and what are possible scenarios for the travel industry?

Together with members of the Travel Industry Club Think Tank, Dr. Fried & Partner dared to take a look into the future and developed five scenarios. Those represent a possible future of the travel industry in 2025. The arrangement of the scenarios is based on the degree of structural and procedural effects from the perspective of current market participants.

Possible scenarios 2025 for the travel industry

Displacement: Platforms keep winning, production and sales take place in familiar processes
Revolution: High degree of innovation by new players, sustainable change process
Metamorphosis: Current market players with high degree of further development in processes and products
Apocalypse: Exit of a large number of market players with simultaneous development standstill
Stagnation: No far-reaching structural or process change

To determine the probability of the scenarios, a representative survey was conducted among over 600 industry experts.

Metamorphosis most likely – yet a mix will prevail

The results of the analysis make it clear: the tourism industry is on the verge of a crisis-induced awakening, which will be driven primarily by current market players. In addition to self-renewal, however, the industry believes that extensive structural changes and intensifying predatory competition from online platforms are to be expected. In contrast, the preservation of the previous status quo and an apocalyptic scenario are considered unlikely.

Both politics and businesses need to shape industry development

Overall, it becomes clear that in the current situation, it is not only politics that is called upon to secure and shape the future of the tourism industry. Rather, every business should use the current crisis to position itself in the best possible way for the future and to drive innovation as well as digital and efficient processes.

We would like to thank all participants for their contribution!

Read the full Whitepaper here.

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